The results of the work of Wess et al. 2010,
have enabled us to confront a crude reality,
approximately 60% of European Dobermann
population will die of DCM. Article of Dr.
Reinhard Haberzettl, old Breed Warden for
the East German Dobermann Verein, published
in ”Das Schäferhund Magazin” Nr.6 Juni 2006,
where he include two interesting data of
prevalence of DCM for year 1989 (26.1%) and
for year 2004 (46.3%) which provides new
data about the historical evolution of the
prevalence of DCM in the Dobermann European
population. When we represent all data from
two sources, a good correlation is shown
which illustrate that Haberzettl data are
valid.

This supposes
that with actual mating system spread rate
of DCM is about 1.5% by year and in 2020 the
prevalence will be 72%!
In words of Dr. Reinhard Haberzettl (2002) :
“The Doberman was created from mixtures of
various breeds and half-breeds at the end of
the 19th century. This genetic variety was a
great health advantage. Up to approximately
1950, there were practically no hereditary
health problems, worldwide. These qualities
still remained in the populations of East
Germany and Eastern Europe up to the
nineties”.
An approximate lineal increase of prevalence
over time leads to a quadratic increase in
the number of affected during the initial
spread of the DCM in the population between
1970-1988 and a more moderated increase
trend (almost lineal) from 1989 to actual (figure
2). Simulations shown that, under a
realistic scenario of 40 popular sires
regarding the imbalance in the use of sires,
the dissemination of the risk was indeed 4.4
times higher than under random mating
conditions (Leroy. and Baumung, 2010).
Parallel evolution of fraction of popular
sire’s offspring (sires with more than 100
pups sired) and DCM affected dogs (figure 2)
shows that initial critical spread of the
DCM during period 1970-1988 coincides with
the period of popularization of the breed
and the overuse of popular dogs. After this
period offspring of popular sires is less
accentuated and also the increase of number
of affected dogs.

Leroy. and
Baumung, 2010 noted that linebreeding
practice outside popular sire use not
increase the risk to dissemination of
genetic diseases. However mating trends in
population of European Dobermann illustrate
that inbreeding rate is based on popular
sire practice as shows the good correlation
between the average inbreeding coefficient (COI
of seven generation pedigree) in the
population and the fraction of population
sided by popular sires (figure 3).

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